Deceleration

The S&P 500 continues to decelerate after reaching the topmost resistance levels of the downward trending channel in place originating May 2015. Today, the market broke below the two converging support levels: one short term upward trending level and the other a medium term downward trending level. They are light blue and dark blue on the charts, respectively.

S&P 500, 30 minute bars

S&P 500, 30 minute bars

This break is a likely indicator that a significant retracement of recent gains. If recent history is any indication, the most important downside target should selling pressures increase currently falls right around 1975, with a very decent buying point falling just below around 1962. The market has made moves very similar to this three or four times since last October, punctuated by the fall in January.

S&P 500, daily bars

S&P 500, daily bars

With the market weakening, this may be the time to pare back profitable long positions, and prepare for a pullback. That said, should we close the day above the levels I mentioned above, this may be a fake out before the market heads higher. Tops take time, so exercising patience will no doubt pay off. As always, keep an eye on price behavior, and good luck out there.

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