Re-Established Trend Developing

Since the most recent major low on Sept. 30, the indexes have staged a mostly unexpected rally. This recovery has consistently surprised us with it consistency since finding its range.

S&P 500, hourly bars

S&P 500, hourly bars

Based on the recent momentum, we can expect a likely retest of the all time highs to take place within the next week and a half. Probability favors the longs from the technical and seasonal perspective, though we remain vulnerable to event risk as the potential for a Fed rate high in December has risen.

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