Monthly Archives: November 2015

Happy Thanksgiving

Before we all go and eat turkey, a look a where we stand going into the last few weeks of 2015.

S&P 500, 2 hour bars

S&P 500, 2 hour bars

We’ve bounced back sharply mid-November lows. We’re now pausing at resistance. The onus is on the bulls; seasonally, we should see a rally into the new year, but with a looming Fed rate hike, strong US dollar, weak inflation and lackluster earnings, there is plenty of room for a retest of the October low before year end.

We’re likely to get a rally, but keep your eye on support and make sure your stops are tight. Happy Thanksgiving!

Daily View: S&P 500 Near a Turning Point

With the major indices retracing some of their recent gains from October, significant moving average support levels are near at hand again. The 125 moving average, around 2050, should provide some near term support, and an attractive entry point for the bulls.

S&P 500, daily

S&P 500, daily

Conversely, a move decisively below 2050 would be a good signal to take off exposure in the event of further retracement.

Preparing for Liftoff

The S&P 500 has pulled back from its recent and is consolidating ahead of what will likely be a retest of the all time highs (white line at the top of the chart). The market is well supported around 2072 and further below at 2050.sp-500hourly2015.11.11The only real resistance overhead falls around 2104 and further up at the all time highs. Probability favors the bulls, as this move appears to have momentum, and seasonality skews bullish late in the year. Take off exposure on a break below 2050.

Daily View 2015.11.7

Looking at the S&P on the daily, we find ourselves roughly midway to the top of the established longer term range, which falls around 2110.

S&P 500, daily

S&P 500, daily

The only major technical hurdle remaining is the all time high around 2136, above which we can expect more upside on a breakout. Support on a break lower falls around 2050.

Re-Established Trend Developing

Since the most recent major low on Sept. 30, the indexes have staged a mostly unexpected rally. This recovery has consistently surprised us with it consistency since finding its range.

S&P 500, hourly bars

S&P 500, hourly bars

Based on the recent momentum, we can expect a likely retest of the all time highs to take place within the next week and a half. Probability favors the longs from the technical and seasonal perspective, though we remain vulnerable to event risk as the potential for a Fed rate high in December has risen.